After spending no little time poring over polling results, past election materials, various news and opinion stories and subjecting a photograph of Karl Marx to a series of finger jabs and pivot kicks -- I have determined that this is what we should watch for on election night.
First, ignore the majority of the polling data since it is clearly been skewed by the questioners as well as the registrations surge made up in some cases of many people who either don't exist or will not turn out.
Do the same to the exit polling, since it will be skewed heavily Democratic and towards Obama - it has been shown his supporters have a much higher preference throughout the year to volunteer opinions to pollsters, probably in the neighborhood of 15% difference in the percentage of voters for each candidate that are willing to speak to a pollster; particularly one outside the voting area.
If New Hampshire goes for McCain, as he is trailing there in some of the aforementioned polling, then I would put his chances of winning at about 55% since it shows immediately the reversal of polling information and the tightening of the race.
But it is a smaller state and one in which he has shown early popularity so it is not particularly dispositive.
If McCain wins Pennsylvania, his chance of winning the election goes up to 65 to 70%.
Pennsylvania has not been carried by Republican since 1988 and polling still shows McCain trailing. But Hillary won this state and Obama seriously underperformed his polling.
Additionally, the comments about bankrupting the coal industry will hurt him in the rural areas and his old friend Jack Murtha has his own problems; so he will not be much help in that area, he may even turn into a drag for the Democrats given his goofy, unpredictable and insulting comments about his own constituents.
Carrying Pennsylvania by McCain/Palin will make a big, big problem for Obama.
If Obama carries Florida then the race tilts heavily his direction. Obama losing Pennsylvania and carrying Florida seems well-nigh impossible but he could easily win Pennsylvania and not carry Florida which will keep the game in play.
If the split is Pennsylvania and Florida then Ohio is the next big number.
Look for big voter problems in that state since their issues are hardly a secret and the Secretary of State has done everything but try and sit on Obama's lap.
Indiana is important as well especially, if McCain carries it by three to four points.
Look for voter problems in that state as well it had some spillover from the massive voter creation activities of ACORN in Ohio.
If it stays close it will then all will come down to Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico with Colorado perhaps being one of the deciders in the election.
Locally, Mesa County should have a good night for Republicans; recent presidential and vice presidential candidate visits have energized the base and party organizations seem strong.
This in the face of a fairly credible challenge from the Democrats but with McCain likely to pull close to 60% in Mesa County it may be a bad night for them.
The competitive House District 55 race could possibly be the surprise election of the state. We have had access to some local polling data that is little old at this point, but it shows the numbers surprisingly close, with Buescher polling extremely high negatives as well as siphoning tremendous amounts of money into this race from other candidates on the Democrat side.
Bradford is our dark horse pick and if she is successful in her minimally financed campaign against over $400,000 in campaign expenditure since 2006 by her opponent, she deserves statewide recognition and her opponent rebuke from his own party for turning the fire hose of money loose to save a single seat.
We had heard rumors that a call for an extra $15-$20000 last week had been made to fund more commercials, if you can imagine that, for his campaign.
The most recent commercials emphasizing his "fighting" for the Western slope probably demonstrate how close the race actually has become these last three weeks.
Personally, I believe that there is a better than even chance McCain pulls Pennsylvania into his column and wins the election-or something completely different. Time will tell.
